[00:00:00] I have no reason to explain why my camera is not showing up. Um, so I'm going to have to do something real quick. Everybody sit tight and, uh, let's see if I can get my camera to come up. Why it's not showing up. I have no idea. It was up there a second ago. Sit tight. Okay. You can still hear my voice. I can tell that.

[00:00:19] And uh, I'll figure out what's going on here in a bit. First of all, I want to thank my a title sponsor, and that is a legendary foods. You can go to their website, eat legendary.com to learn more about their tasty pastry, which is a magnificent, um. Type of almost pop tart type dessert that has nine grams of protein, less than one gram of sugar.

[00:00:40] They also have amazing nut butters and stuff like that. We're going to be talking about coronavirus today. Today is, uh, March 16th, 2020. We're getting deeper and deeper into this rabbit hole. I'm going to bring my guest on here in just a second and see if I can get my camera to come up as well. And he's there, but I'm not, and that is [00:01:00] my good friend, uh, Mark David, John Evans.

[00:01:05] How are you doing, Mark? I'll figure out what's going on my camera and a little bit for now. We're going to just have your mug up there. How's that sound? Well, Carl, so, um. It's the weirdest thing. So first of all, today, our platform went completely down for at least a half hour before the show started. I was panicked that we weren't even going to be able to do the show today.

[00:01:23] So obviously there's some bugs in the, uh, in the mix here, but we'll work with it. So today, actually we just heard that the, uh, governor of our state announced that we've had the first death from Corona virus. Today. It was a 66 year old man out in, I think Harlan County. He had underlying health issues and he did succumb to the, uh, to the virus.

[00:01:50] Uh, I think currently we have something like 17 reported cases in the state. Do you know Mark how many we have in the state right now? Yeah, that's about right. At least as of [00:02:00] yesterday, I haven't checked today. Yeah. And so it's, it's, it's, it definitely is spreading. It's definitely spreading. Now, Mark is a statistician.

[00:02:08] He's a fellow of the society of actuaries. He, he likes to work with numbers, but he's also one of the strongest men in the state of Kentucky, pound for pound. So before we get into the his, the nerdy side of him, uh, let's talk a little bit about your power lifting career. Yeah, sure. I've, uh, you know, in a lighter weight class, cause I'm, I'm a small, small guy, look like a runner, cause I'm fin.

[00:02:33] But, but I've got that. Why re um, strength. Um, um, well in my sixties at this point is still dead lift, uh, over, uh, three times, uh, uh, my body weight. Uh, and, and because of that I've got, um. Uh, in the, uh, natural athletic strength, uh, association, which is one of the largest drug free powerlifting federations in the country.

[00:02:58] I hold, uh, numerous, [00:03:00] uh, uh, national records, so actually in a variety of lifts, but, but my, uh, real specialty at this point is, isn't dead lifting Carl. And what is your top, uh, deadlift in a competition market? Uh, in my younger days when, when I was able to carry a little more weight than I can now, I hit a four 75 and in recent times I've been running about four, four 35 and at what body weight.

[00:03:24] Um, the four 75 O's, a little heavier, probably about 145 recently, I've been in the, you know, one 37, one 38 pounds. So you're pulling close to four times your body weight basically. That's a little over three times. Okay. Yeah. I like so, see, he's a numbers guy. So he rounds down. I'm a talk show host. I round up, and that's an example of what you're going to find out about Mark.

[00:03:49] And he's. He, he, he, uh, he not only, uh, likes to use the numbers, but he pays them the homage that they deserve by not, uh, [00:04:00] Explo ex. Uh, what's the word I'm looking for? Exploiting, uh, or dramatizing, uh, what they mean. And so now we're going to talk about something. Uh, that's in everybody's mind. Everybody's worried about getting Corona virus.

[00:04:13] Uh, this particular form of coven. Uh, 19 is actually a form of SARS, which I believe stars stands for. A severe acute respiratory something syndrome, syndrome syndrome. That's it. And it basically is, is kinda like, uh, getting pneumonia, uh, but on steroids where your lungs are just, uh, really, uh, taken out of.

[00:04:37] Right. Any ability to scavenge oxygen. Rapid breathing puts a lot of pressure on the heart. Um, strain on the heart, I should say. And, and the entire body, probably what many people with advanced CLPD experience every day of their lives, quite frankly. Uh, but because we're not used to that, it's scary. You feel like you're going to suffocate and, um, and we [00:05:00] actually have some nice things that we can look at.

[00:05:01] I know that, let's talk about the model you built. So you actually built a model. Yes, Carl, I was, I was, I'm trying to, for my own understanding, to get a better appreciation of what we were hearing in the news and, and how it all fit together and stuff like that. And since I do similar stuff in my work every day, um, I said, okay, I'm gonna, I'm gonna build a, uh, Corona virus model and, and see how this is working.

[00:05:32] Now my main goal here was. Um, I had a good conceptual understanding why, uh, you know, our leaders, our government is saying, um, Hey, look, um. We've, we've got to start canceling sporting events and prohibiting crowds greater than 50 from gathering and, and shutting down restaurants and shutting down bars.

[00:05:56] And this all seems pretty [00:06:00] extreme. And so my main goal with this model was to. Um, try to explain why that was and also try to, uh, get some insight in what people are talking about. Well, we've got to at least slow it down and why that is extremely important. Now, real quickly before I get into some of that, um.

[00:06:21] Well, I mean, I think, no, I have to do my normal disclaimer. This is my own opinion. Uh, I'm not representing the society of actuaries or any of my clients or any of my employers. Um, also like point out, we're talking about a model models produce a plausible outcomes. They're not precise predictions, um, of, of the future.

[00:06:42] What'd you say? What'd you say? That models is skewed towards producing the worst possible outcomes so that we understand what the potential, uh, damage could be if everything goes wrong. Well, not necessarily. In fact, the very [00:07:00] first, um, example I'm going to talk about is actually on the optimistic side, kind of say, you know, kinda established, um, establish a baseline.

[00:07:11] And then I will talk about what some other factors, especially ones that are made a little harder to quantify at this point. . That would actually make things worse. So what I'm going to talk about today is I'm actually going to start, not from a worst case scenario, but, but actually from a best case scenario.

[00:07:32] Excellent. So maybe, so with that introduction, what I call my base case scenario is I say, okay, what if we don't have this mitigation efforts? Um. And we've got a good example of what happens in that case. You know, China have their mitigation efforts where we'd come in, out of the gate. Uh, we've got the diamond, for instance.

[00:07:57] Uh, a cruise ship that for [00:08:00] statistician is a, is a gold mine. Even it's a low, it's a small sample. It's still told us a lot. So I use those, um, basic facts and I say, okay, I'm going to assume a, a fairly, um. You know, modest mortality rate. You've heard different mortality rates quoted. I said, I'm not going to get real fancy.

[00:08:22] Break it down by age and excuse the 1% mortality, right? I'm going to assume a 20% per day compound infection rate, which is actually a probably a little bit lower than than what we've been saying in these, uh. Cases, and I'm also going to do something else. It's pretty, uh, conservative. I'm going to say, you know what, 80% of the people are just not going to get this.

[00:08:46] That's probably not true, but we don't have solid proof, like at least that I've seen. Um, the, that the infection rate will, that, that over 20% of the populations is subject to the infection. It may be, but, but we don't, we don't [00:09:00] have any solid. Foundation for saying that. On the other hand, we've got a pretty good foundation for st Yammer's is probably at least about 20%.

[00:09:07] So I can't go, and actually that could be a realistic assumption because there was just a study, remove a release this morning and I can't find what university put this out, but they're claiming that this substantial undocumented cases of infection and they're undocumented because they are not developing, uh, really any, uh, symptoms.

[00:09:30] And, and while these people have the potential to perhaps spread the virus, they don't seem to be effected by the virus. Uh, so that, that would be a fair assessment that, you know, there might be people out there who have, have the virus, don't develop any symptoms, and so we're just assuming they didn't get infected.

[00:09:48] Um. That's, that's correct. Correct. Uh, there's all kinds of evidence supporting what you, what you just said. Um, Carl, uh, for example, the w H O, uh, has [00:10:00] quoted a mortality rate from the China experience of like 3.4% or something like that. And I think they've since backed off on that, but a lot of a statistician's realize now it's probably not that bad.

[00:10:13] And the reason for that is there's probably a lot of who we believe. There's a lot of people in China have it. Um, and so, um, that, that were never tested, you know, habit and were never tested. And so we think, well, they've got a good, accurate account on, on the numerator in that equation. Um, we think the denominator is, is understated.

[00:10:38] And, and because of that, the mortality rate is, is not the 3.4% or whatever. That's, that's been quote, which I think that who since back that off from. And don't we have, don't we have evidence from South Korea that their mortality rate was actually lower than China's experience? Dramatically lower. I, and, um, last time I [00:11:00] looked, which was in the band pass a day or two was about 0.9%.

[00:11:03] My model uses, um, 1%, but, but let me quickly get to the bottom line here and then we can take it from there. Um, with these actually fairly optimistic assumptions. Um, now I'm assuming no mitigation efforts. We've started mitigation efforts. So the number I'm about to quote won't actually happen most likely because of the ventilation.

[00:11:31] Um. Measures that are in place. Now, what without those measures in the U S even with these optimistic assumptions, we're looking at half a million deaths. That's half a million dead people with 90% of that happening by the 4th of July weekend. And like I said, to get to that number, um. I'm, I'm being, I'm optimistic in, in a lot of the assumptions or, you know, the inputs, um, [00:12:00] to get there, Carl, so, so Tim Gwyn is asking, he says there's no foundation for saying 20% will be affected.

[00:12:06] Does he mean only 20% will be symptomatic? Where did you get that 20% number from? Why did you use that as, as one of the variables? Well, let me clarify what the 20% is. Oh, once again, and then I'll talk about, um, where I got it. Yeah. What I'm saying is that, Mmm, that's the number that are subject to being infected, but the other 80% just just won't get it.

[00:12:38] Okay. Now it could be much higher than 20% let me be clear about that. We just don't know yet. And, and I'll talk about a sample where I did, I saw what, what happens if it's more than 20% I'll get to that. Yeah. Well, like I said, the diamond princess is a real good test case. We had [00:13:00] 3,500 people on board that ship 700 tested positive.

[00:13:04] That's 20% there, you know, and. Yeah, the only, the only, the only thing I would offer about that is because I've been on a cruise ship. So Elisa and I went on a cruise, uh, last year and we both came home miserably sick. I came home first and then she got sick from me. I got sick from an older woman coughing in my face on a bus, and I know that's when I got it.

[00:13:29] And I had all the symptoms that people talking about right now. Uh, I had a fever, difficulty breathing. Sore throat, dry, raspy cough that was not productive. Nothing was coming up. Um, felt horrible for a good month and a half. Elisa got sick. It lasted her almost two and a half months. Uh, the, the only reason I would offer, uh, that we may be slightly downplayed the w the cruise ship.

[00:13:57] A example is because this is communal. [00:14:00] Everybody's eating from the same buffets. It it. You're going to catch something on a cruise ship. I will never go on a cruise again because I said jokingly, after coming home from that, I'll save $8,000 and just go lick the floor at the hospital emergency room next time.

[00:14:14] I want to experience what it's like to take a cruise because everybody is, we have an older population, we have a sicker population, and we we live in such close confines. That everybody is literally  the burst best possible scenario too, to be contagious in my humble opinion. Well, and, and curl. Um. That's a good point.

[00:14:37] Let me clarify though that the only thing I was using that 20% for was to say this is the people that can possibly catch it. For example, it went through that ship very quickly, and I think that's for the reasons you're talking about. Um. But I didn't, not in my model assume that it would go through the general population at the [00:15:00] speed, which it went through the diamond princess for the very reasons you're, you're talking.

[00:15:04] Understood. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Okay. Okay, so go ahead. So, so based on that, the optimistic model says half a million people, and that's actually very close to, um, someone from. The CDC who came up with 480,000, uh, deaths, and you're saying a half a million. So that's, that's right. In the same ballpark as some people who are putting themselves out there and saying, this is what we're looking at.

[00:15:34] But that's the optimistic side. That's what mitigation, that's what people know. That is. No. Without no mitigation. Oh, without mitigation, no mitigation. So no, no self quarantine, Nope. Nothing, nothing that would stop this transmission, uh, from really happening naturally, basically way. The only mitigation I assumed, uh, was that if [00:16:00] someone's, you know, serious or those in ICU or goes on a ventilator, that they're effectively quarantined.

[00:16:05] Right. So I assume that only the people with the mild condition, which applied to you about 80%, you know, so still most of them, but only to assume that that 80% was out in the population, um, able to, uh, uh, transmit it. But if we start laying on all these mitigation factors, you know, if you're sick, stay home, uh, uh, close schools, no large events, close restaurants, close bars.

[00:16:32] When you start laying on all these mitigation. Affects the 500,000 is going to drop dramatically. And, and it won't be anywhere near that bad because the government and our leaders have put in these, uh, uh, mitigation effects. And that's come through in, in spades in what we're seeing in, in China, which initially did not have their act together, but eventually got very good at it.

[00:17:00] [00:17:00] And we're seeing it in Korea. Um, and another. Example, you don't hear about because they did such a great job as is Singapore. So, so that's, so the main point in all this is the people pretty irritated that all these restrictions and closures and, and sports events being canceled. And you and I didn't get to go to Arnold this year.

[00:17:24] I know that that was, that was, that was annoying as looking forward to that. But I understand why they did it. I, and, and, um. This, this is a case where, or a government, uh, uh, knows, knows what they're doing. Um, some people are out there saying, well, this is some grand plot to somehow, you know, the feet Trump for.

[00:17:48] President. I, you know, I don't care about the politics of this. Yeah. You know what? I'm not a Trump fan, but look, I registered, you know, Republican. I'm, I'm not out to, to make up stories about the guy either. You know, I'm [00:18:00] just, well,  politicians are horribly opportunistic. If they see an opportunity that they can twist, they do.

[00:18:07] If we just leave politics out of this, you know, this virus did exactly what. Bird flu, swine flu, and if you want to go all the way back to the 13 hundreds while it wasn't a virus, it was a bacteria. The black plague started in China in the 13 hundreds it, it killed 25 million people in the Mediterranean, Italy, because we have to remember the silk trade is the oldest still living.

[00:18:36] Commercial cooperative in the world and the silk, if you follow the silk trade, that's how the black plague got literally around the globe before we had airplanes to travel places. Right? So, uh, you know, it's, it's, um, it's a lot of people using conspiracy theories right now, and it's just silly. Uh, whether or not this is a manmade virus, I'm not going to get into that.

[00:18:59] The bottom [00:19:00] line is, its transmission has been shown. To be the same path of transmission. That has happened at least a dozen times, you know, over the past four or 500 years. Uh, so you know, this, this idea that, Oh, this is a political, you know, someone did this. Well, no one did it into 13 hundreds. No, but nobody, if they did it, then they did swine flu.

[00:19:21] They did bird flu. Uh, they did H one, N one. I mean, they, these, this is the path. Now what we are learning from this exercise here in the United States is there's a lot of things we're doing today that we should adopt as regular habits. Washing your hands more. You know, your mother told you to do it, but you don't do it.

[00:19:39] I see guys in fine restaurants using the men's room while I'm standing at the urinal, come out of a stall and go right out the door to their table, and I always look for them to see who they're sitting there sitting with their families, filthy, filthy people. I mean, there are a lot of things that we're learning from this that if we adopted either 50% of them, we'd probably slow the transmission of the seasonal [00:20:00] flu from person to person.

[00:20:02] I'm not saying that we have to go with the self quarantine, but there are definitely things that we can do. Also, it's important to note that it, today in the New York post, uh, I got to see who, who sent me this, but today in the New York post, uh, six of the, uh, emergency hospitals that were opened in response to this virus have closed, uh, because they, they, they're seeing, they're starting to see a drop.

[00:20:27] Now, of course, the conspiracy theorists are saying, no, the government is trying to kill them, or they've, they've undergone martial law, so they have to stay home and die instead of dying in the hospital. And you know, a lot of this stuff, I'm not going to debate, but the bottom line is it coincides with a drop that we're seeing right here in the United States right now.

[00:20:46] So this is a real time tracker coronavirus realtime update. I'm going to, I'm going to remove the overlay so you can see the bottom most portion of this graph, but [00:21:00] so the dark red line. Is cumulative confirmed cases. If you see right there at this flattens out, it goes. It goes from going up to straight.

[00:21:09] And the reason for that is because the newly reported cases has literally dropped off just from the small efforts we're making here in the United States. People going, Oh, I'm not going to go to the movies today. People going, I'm not going to the bar and going out drinking tonight. It's having an effect and now can we, can we look at that optimistically now and say, what would that have.

[00:21:29] To do with the model that you've, that you've developed so far? Um, not a whole lot with the model. Um, I have developed because the model I developed was focused on what happens if we don't litigate. For the most part. I will talk about one quote experiment I did with the model that shows the, um, you know, some of the advantages of, um.

[00:21:55] Mitigation. Um, but let me, let me build up a little bit [00:22:00] to get there. Let me play it foundation. So one thing that I haven't, uh, talked about yet is the fact that we've got a limited number of ventilators, uh, in the, uh, U S we've got a limited number of ICU beds, and even with some rather optimistic assumptions about, uh, utilization and stuff like that.

[00:22:26] If we don't mitigate when I take into account the, um,  you know, when, when I, when I take into account lack of, um, ICU beds and, and ventilators and the fact that we, we, we don't have enough to go around in the, in the situation where we don't take mitigating action. Um. I think we're looking at the deaths going from the, you know, half million number I quoted earlier once, once I take into account these, um, [00:23:00] capacity limits, I mean, numbers like 900,000, 1.3 million now.

[00:23:05] Now these numbers are more squishy than the 500,000 I quoted earlier. Um, because I don't have as much, um, information. To go on and, and, and, um, setting the parameters involved. You know, trying to talk to some doctors and some medical people. Cause I'm a statistician. I'm not a medical expert. I'm trying to talk to some people knowledgeable about this and maybe refine this part of it.

[00:23:32] But even if I'm a fairways off on that part of it, the fact of the matter is that, um, if we don't, um, do something.  and doctors are saying the same thing. You talk to any doctor or you look at what's happening in Italy. It's just, it's overwhelmed. The, uh, medical capacity in the country that spite the great doctors and nurses and medical professionals we have in this country, they won't be [00:24:00] able to keep up.

[00:24:01] Now, what's interesting on the other hand, Carl, is, remember I said early on that my model's got a, uh, uh. I don't she said this or not, and I'll say it now. Okay. Uh, there's another 20% in the model. The model says that each day, um, your new infections will be equal to 20% of the existing infections. They're in the mild category cause cause of really sick people in the hospital or something, right?

[00:24:30] Not okay. If we slow that down to 10% cut in half. And, and I actually think the mitigation efforts will do better than that. Cause that's what we've seen in China and Korea. But if we even cut it from 20% to 10%, those, um, 900,000, 1.3 million, what numbers I just threw out, um, drops to 400,000. [00:25:00] It spreads it out.

[00:25:01] Uh, staggers it so we don't overload the, um. A ventilator capacity. We don't overload the, um, um, ICU capacity. That means the tail on this thing is, is a lot longer, but it not only reduces, it. Um, but, you know, reduces the total, uh, number of deaths dramatically. Uh, gives our medical professions, um, medical professionals a chance to catch up.

[00:25:31] And as some of you, as people have probably heard, they've already made good progress on developing a vaccine, but it gives them vaccine makers more time to, uh, to work their magic. Yeah, that's a good point. Um, before we go into the break, I want to, uh, address something. So, um, Aaron, uh, Pierre says South Korea would probably be a better predictor and we have addressed that.

[00:25:58] We, we've talked about the fact [00:26:00] that South Korea, because of their mitigation effort, and then there's another unique thing about South Korea. They are testing everybody. So they have a true. Oh true. Were or more accurate rendition of mortality. Because if, if there's a hundred people that are infected and, and there's, let's, let me back up.

[00:26:22] If there's 200 people that are symptomatic and you only test them and then 20 of them die, the mortality rate is higher than if you're testing people who that are that are not truly symptomatic. And you find out they carry the virus too. Now all of a sudden you start to skew the mortality rate down and down because the population of people who got infected that didn't die becomes larger and larger.

[00:26:46] So no matter what we do, regardless of any efforts, without testing, everybody will never really know the true mortality rate. But that's what we have to work with. And we see this already with South Korea. [00:27:00] South Korea has jumped on this. They will more prepared for this type of an event. Uh, and as a result of that, their, their mortality rate is far, far less than that of China.

[00:27:11] But with that being said, I want to drop one more, a commentary of Patty grapher. Bruna min says, a population to population does not match to be accurate. You're right. It's never going to be accurate because there is so many other variables involved here. But at least we can get a picture of what to expect.

[00:27:30] Just like the cruise ship. Uh, the reality is as this virus, so as this virus gets transferred from human to human and mutates to a less. A dangerous form. We've seen this with other viruses where they, they all of a sudden people get it and they just don't get nearly as sick as the first, second, and third generation of people who got infected.

[00:27:53] So it's going to be hard to take population to population, but I want to throw this image up of Italy because. [00:28:00] There is a telling sign here and that is the transmission of the virus, not necessarily the, the, uh, the virulence of the vide, uh, virus to actually cause harm and danger, but the ability to transmit it from person to person.

[00:28:16] When we look at Italy. And will you line Italy up with us? So the top number of February 23rd was when Italy got wise that this was a problem and they started to publish numbers. And the right side is when we started to do the same, which was three, five so we've got a few weeks ahead. Uh, they are a few weeks ahead of us, but if we line up the dates, and we look at today, March 16th to their March 5th the numbers are almost exactly the same.

[00:28:45] 3,858. Uh, uh, tested positive 3,802 in the United States. So we can't ignore this just because, Oh, populations are an indicative, we can say this with, with some, some, some great [00:29:00] assurance. And that is, this virus has an ability to be transmitted from person to person with very predictable. In fact, the CDC posted a number this morning that for every person who gets it, there will be two and a half people that will get it.

[00:29:16] As a result.  you want to comment on that predictability? Is it? Am I overstating that? I don't think so. They at and T hit the same point. Again, the reason the government is doing what it's doing is the way to interrupt that, to break that cycle, to break the exponential growth. Um, is, is with these mitigation efforts with ex exponential growth simply means when you've got a 20% increase each day, it's not 20% plus 20% plus 20%.

[00:29:52] It's 1.2 times, 1.2 times 1.2. That grows much faster. And a lot of people [00:30:00] don't think about that, but get out your calculator and see what that, uh. Uh, does this is, it's just like a compound interest. Is your stock broker telling you about to get you to buy lots of stock, same concept, but as the, instead of talking about, you know, a 12% return on your investments when you're talking about 20%, um, that has the effect of.

[00:30:26] Making the compounding even stronger as the percentage goes up, the compounding becomes even more important. And that's, that's what we're seeing here with, with the Corona virus. And that's why I put this graphic back up again. I mean, you can see the drop off in new cases is dramatic. It's not a fluke.

[00:30:44] It's not like, Oh, you know, it's so dramatic. It's so significant. And it's because of the mitigation efforts that we're applying here in the United States. It's also. Because more people are already being tested. I know that a lot of people are complaining, well, I want to get tested [00:31:00] and I can't. They're only testing people that have symptoms that can't be explained away from any other known thing.

[00:31:06] 96% of the people who are being tested right now are being, they're being shown to have some other respiratory problem, some other bacterial, uh, you know, people who have, um. A pneumonia or going to the hospital and going, Oh, I think I have it. And they tend to know you've got pneumonia, you've got bacterial pneumonia.

[00:31:26] So now that we're testing more, albeit it's not as much as people want to see, now the number is dropping off, and we're seeing that we're seeing a flattening of new cases. Already, and that's significant. People shouldn't just poo poo that. Oh well you know something to be in head. No, it's not. We are actually seeing the effects of our efforts taking place and that's a really good thing in my humble opinion.

[00:31:49] Now, should you just go throw caution to the wind and go, Oh great, it's going away. Let me go out and party and do, no, we have to keep doing what we're doing. That's working until. [00:32:00] It's so predictably drops for so long that we feel like we're okay now. We've got a handle on this. Yeah, that's a good point.

[00:32:08] Uh, Carl, cause if you go back and look at the Spanish flu, everybody thought it was gone. But then round two came and round two made, made a round one look trivial. And, and so towards your point. He's gotta be, he's gotta be careful on these things to make sure they don't come back on. You don't have, and you know what?

[00:32:32] I don't want to stay home. Luckily, Elisa and I have a nice home. Uh, you know, I can sit in the backyard, I can diddle around. I've got a home gym, I've got all that sort of thing. I went to the gym today. Um, I used hand sanitizer frequently. Uh, I, I was very cautious. I haven't touched my face at all, which is hard for me cause I like to pick my nose once in a while.

[00:32:52] And so I don't have to keep stopping when I'm finger goes, I gotta go. No, no, no, no. Not today. But you know, the reality is it's not fun for [00:33:00] anybody, but what are the, what are, what are the alternatives? Getting this? And that's another thing, a good friend. Uh, Travis. A super nice guy, fireman, super strong, big bodybuilder.

[00:33:13] You know, I think, you know, Travis, he's got the reddish hair. He's friends with Porter. I don't, I may not meet the great, great, great guy. Really great guy. So him and another firefighter were talking and, and you know, and they were talking about how they have no choice but to put themselves at risk. If they have to give CPR to a guy and give him mouth to mouth, they can't ask him, Hey, were you in China recently?

[00:33:32] They just got jump to action. And he said he's also taking precautions for when he doesn't have to do that, not getting close to people. And I said to him, you know, most of us will probably live through this if we got it, but who the hell wants to be sick anyway? Like you want to get sick just to prove that you're going to that, that this won't kill you.

[00:33:51] That's just a stupid thing. So here's what I want to do. I want to take a quick commercial break when we come back. I want to start to talk about something else that's [00:34:00] equally important to discuss. And that's the age stratification of the mortality seen with this virus. Because it's important to distinguish what old people bring to the party that leads to their susceptibility to dying and what young people in this country of the United States.

[00:34:22] Actually have immune systems like old people. Stay tuned. We'll be right back. This is the superhuman channel evolution. Just got kicked up a notch.

[00:34:41] Hey, I'm back on my side of the fence. Welcome back to supremer radio. My friend, uh. Mark is with us and we're talking about the possibility of being infected and the mortality. Uh, he is a statistician. He has done some, uh, number of modeling [00:35:00] to look at these, uh, potential. And a lot of this comes back to overall health because the people who are healthy.

[00:35:07] Uh, aren't nearly as worried about this virus as the people who aren't part of being healthy is actually hydration. But a lot of people think that just drinking water alone is all you need to do to hydrate. That's a lie. In fact, today's Springwater's have almost no minerals in them. I found this out the hard way.

[00:35:25] I actually emailed deer park one time and because of the processing that a lot of these waters undergo, a lot of the minerals are removed from Springwater, which is supposed to have minerals in them. Minerals are what caused you to be hydrated, not just water alone. In fact, drinking water. Too much could actually dehydrate you if you're not adding minerals to your water.

[00:35:48] We see this in people who drink too much water too quick, and their hearts actually can stop because of a phenomenon where potassium and magnesium and calcium become out of whack, called [00:36:00] hyponutremia. Well, adding minerals to your water is the answer. And the best mineral out there today is hydrant. In fact, they are offering my audience a very, very special deal, and that is 25% off your first order.

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[00:37:29] You can fix all of that. And hydrogen comes in a nice little bag of individually wrapped. Packages you could take with you and just drop it in your water bottle, you know, one or two a day. If you're a hard training athlete, you're sitting in the sauna a lot, you're sweating a lot. You may need a couple of day, but you will see a change in the way you feel and the way you perform for 25% off your first order.

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[00:38:11] Check it out. So we're talking with my buddy Mark. We're talking more about the role of right now, age stratification in the mortality rate of this covert 19 virus. What have you seen so far in a, and what you've been reading and how does age play into the mortality rate? Mark. Well, and as you know, and, and as pretty much everybody knows, it's been following this closely, is there's a huge skewness, um, by age and that the, basically, the older you are, the, the much higher the, uh, uh, mortality rate   virus.

[00:38:52] And in fact, I am considered an old guy. I am 60, I'll be 62. I know you're a little bit older than me, right? Mark. Yes, [00:39:00] just a little. And so the reality is that, uh, Mark and I fall into a high risk category, 60 to 69 the, the mortality rate of this virus is like a 2.4% a 70 to 79. It's like, uh, closer to 6% and 80 and above, it's 24 points.

[00:39:19] 8% almost 25% so age stratification plays a large role in your susceptibility, but here's the variable that no one is discussing. We are making assumptions that at this age, your immune system functions like this. Guys like us, we, we make sure our sleep is right. We train hard, we eat diets that are conducive to overall health.

[00:39:45] I don't have any underlying health problems. My heart functions, my lungs function, my kidneys function, and I'm sure you are the same way. The reality is that there's a large portion of the population today that may be 30 and 40 and they already have compromised immune systems because they [00:40:00] are type two diabetic, more people in the United States, a type two diabetic than anything else.

[00:40:05] So, so to a large extent, the trend by age is. A proxy for various chronic health problems. If you strip the chronic health problems away, and I don't think they've looked at the day this way, they will eventually, but they're probably want to accumulate more data if he's stripped the health problems way there.

[00:40:26] I'm sure there's still a, a, a noticeable trend. Um. By age. So unfortunately, Carl, you and I don't get off the hook just just because we're healthy and it sure helps, but, but unfortunately, because of our age, even even as a healthy old guys, we've, we've still got more, more of a risk than some know why that is.

[00:40:45] But if I, if I, if I don't have problems with my heart. If I don't have any underlying health conditions, if I can push it 200 pound sled sprinting, if I could do all these things that we do, I mean, you train very hard. I see you at the gym. Why? Why would [00:41:00] that be the case? That just because we have this numerical, uh, this numerical value attached to our bodies, our bodies are not the same as 60 year old guys our age.

[00:41:12] Yeah, that's, that's, that's true. Uh, but in general, what you find with, uh, mortality studies and, and, and I know this from, from, you know, my work with insurance companies is you've got somebody in very good health that's 65, and you've got somebody in very good health that's 35. The 65 year old does have a much, much higher mortality rate disability, just the curse of being at NRH.

[00:41:39] And. I would say they know for sure yet, but I get the impression from the articles that are read and whatnot, that they're pretty much convinced that that same pattern exists with the Corona virus. Interestingly enough, the Spanish flu was much different, but, but how finally, how so? [00:42:00] It actually tended to hit the people.

[00:42:04] You don't think that the flu would hit it actually hit, you know, people in their twenties thirties and forties. Uh, uh, harder than the very young or the, um, very old. And, and some of that is, as I understand, and I'm not a medical expert, I'm, I'm a numbers guys. I've, as I've mentioned, but, um, as, as I understand it, is the, the fact that younger people had a stronger immune system.

[00:42:30] It was almost like the immune system overreacted and they started attacking their own body because of the existence of the Spanish flu. Um, but, but it was an overreaction to the Spanish flu that killed a lot of the younger people. So that's interesting. I don't know if it was the Spanish flu or H one N one, but there was a large, larger mortality risk and people who, uh, self-diagnosed and [00:43:00] took large amounts of, uh, inseds and or aspirin too.

[00:43:06] Either lower, they have fever or lower their aches and pains. There was a direct correlation with people who took large doses of end CEDS and a higher mortality rate, and I don't remember if it was the Spanish flu or the H one N one. I just read that this morning in preparation for today's show. I was like, wow, that's interesting.

[00:43:23] And they assigned it to, um, some sort of change in immune function, the way the immune system responded, because you know. Well, people don't understand is inflammation is the army of the immune system. When the immune system sees something that's attacking the body, it sends out inflammatory cytokines and chemokine to go and suppress that attack.

[00:43:47] So inflammation is required to respond to these disorders and, and, and, and suppress it. And basically by taking those types of drugs, you're literally suppressing the immune system. [00:44:00] I think about that. And Carl, we've got some comments towards that. Yeah, look at his dad, Dennis Rowe, Galinsky Rogowski I'm sorry.

[00:44:09] Uh, uh, he just posted that he said, France is now saying that ibuprofen is aggravating, covert 19. They recommend using Tylenol instead. That's interesting. And very interesting. And he puts the link up for those of you who want to see it. Uh, it is in the thread. Thank you for posting this, a dentist. This is valuable to the discussion.

[00:44:32] Yeah. So there, there's my point there. There, you know, the immune system has a job and the job has, when you are suffering from a virus like this, especially a re, uh, a reverse transcripted virus, it's important to distinguish this virus against seasonal flu because this virus. Leverages an enzyme called reverse transcriptase, which actually helps to [00:45:00] rebuild the blueprint for your DNA, and it actually slips.

[00:45:04] This virus slips its blueprint into your DNA, so every cell in your body becomes a factory to manufacture this virus. That's how it replicates so quickly, and that's why it overwhelms the body. It actually tricks your DNA into becoming part of the factory. And so. When we see these types of viruses, which HIV, Ebola, SARS, and now a covert 19, a lot of the traditional things you do for other viruses like pound down and sets, uh, to alleviate your fever, uh, or alleviate your muck muscle, muscle aches and pains actually suppresses the immune system to where now the virus is, has, it's just like opening the Fort doors and having all the soldiers go to sleep and letting the enemy in.

[00:45:52] Oh, interesting. Uh, you have anything else you want to add about the, uh, the model? I know that you were playing with it earlier, [00:46:00] uh, LA, uh, real time. What's the worst that could happen? So you given us the, is there a chance for the whole, some people out there saying 2.5 million deaths in the United States by the end of the year, they're project protecting, projecting it out.

[00:46:14] Did they're saying a 2.5 million? Some, there was some, yeah. Did they may. Okay. First of all, because of mitigation efforts, that shouldn't happen. I don't, I don't think there's any way that's going to happen because of the mitigation answers or I'm sorry, mitigation measures, but let's change the question about a little bit.

[00:46:36] Could it happen. Without the mitigation efforts. Okay. Okay. It's for people. Uh, you know, Tim had, had properly questioned, Hey, is 20% really the right percentage to be infected? Um, some people out there have unknowledgeable people said, you're like, it goes high as 45%. And I've even heard higher percentages.

[00:46:57] Uh, maybe I don't think there's a [00:47:00] strong indication that that will happen, but what. It's a reasonable possibility if I put 45% into my model, uh, partly because of the impact that would have on the ventilators and the ICU beds being overrun. Um, I get 2.9 million, so that. That confirms, uh, well, I shouldn't say that.

[00:47:23] Does not confirm, but that lines up with their assumptions. Winds up confirms too strong of a word in this case because the model's just not that precise, but, but they do, they do line up. So that's, that's not an unplausible, uh, claim by whoever made that. Yeah. Um, I think we're going to take our last break and when we come back, I'm going to talk about things that you can do.

[00:47:47] I've written a couple of good articles. I've talked about peptides. I'm going to just go through the list of things that people can do. Um, if they want to try to add a little. Um, technology to the mitigation efforts besides just [00:48:00] washing your hands and staying home. Stay tuned. We'll break. This is the superhuman channel where we use oxygen for the power of good.

[00:48:09] Welcome back. We're talking with my friend Mark David, John Evans. If any of you've ever seen him in a power lifting competition, his ritual right before he lifts is something to be watched. You walk back and forth on the platform about five or six times, walk up to the bar, literally do a little jump stand, still grab the bar and pull.

[00:48:35] I've watched it so many times. It's a really fun, fun ritual that you have. So, um, I want to talk a little bit about, uh, the mitigation efforts, right? Obviously self quarantining just means try to stay away from, well, if you've been diagnosed, self quarantining means stay in your house. And you can go outside in your own backyard.

[00:48:56] I think they want you to stay like never go further than your driveway. So [00:49:00] walking around the neighborhood is probably a no, no. But if you're not symptomatic and you don't have any reason to believe that you're infected, you know, stay out of public places as much as possible. Movie theaters. What do you think, Mark?

[00:49:13] Is that safe?

[00:49:18] Yeah. No, I mean, they've got the scientists, the medical experts, which I'm not, but the medical experts at this point know an awful lot about this disease, and so just just do what they say they're there. They're on top of it. So here are some tips. I wrote an article I'm now going on two weeks ago about the relationship between the sun and the occurrence of retroviruses.

[00:49:43] It's not heat folks. That's not the magic. When they say seasonal viruses, it's not because it's warmer. Because in fact, we see people getting influenza and retroviruses who keep their homes really hot, way too hot for me to live in a, we see people who stay in [00:50:00] saunas getting retroviruses. So it's not the heat, it's the sun and the production of 25 hydroxy D Unbound, 25 hydroxy, and some of its downstream metabolites like the, um.

[00:50:12] Catalyst  LL three seven which is a natural antimicrobial, antiviral, antifungal, and thymus, and alpha one. These are all metabolites of vitamin D three when it turns into Unbound 25 hydroxy, and there's good research out there that shows that the 25 hydroxy stops the replication of HIV one which is a very, very aggressive.

[00:50:39] Retrovirus, uh, and also has been shown to treat Ebola in high doses, 200,000 IUs at a time. And so if you're not taking vitamin D three, and you're not getting out in the sun regularly because the climate where you live doesn't permit, you're really missing an opportunity to protect yourself. Now, will it keep you from getting it?

[00:51:00] [00:50:59] Maybe not, but will it keep some people from getting it maybe solid? Uh, the other thing is we did a show. With Ryan Smith from made about specific protocol using peptides. Go to superior radio.net. Find that show and listen to it. There are five peptides that have pre pronounced effect on suppressing and treating retroviruses.

[00:51:23] A thymus in alpha one LL three, seven. Um. I'm trying to go to the other ones. Well, I can't remember now, but they're there on that show. You can buy those. You can get the prescribed from a doctor who was a member of IPS, international peptide society. Have your doctor prescribed them. You can take them, inject them in the morning with a little tiny little needle that just goes under the skin, into the fat.

[00:51:44] It's not like a big syringe. You don't have to be afraid of it. They call it an insulin syringe, quite frankly. Uh, and you can protect yourself that way. Uh, the, the other thing is of course, wash your frigging hands. Often. Now with this, like I was at the gym today, Mark, you and I trained [00:52:00] at the same gym.

[00:52:00] They have a anti-microbial bottles on the wall every day. Every time I went past, when I pumped it five or six times, wiped my hands with it, let it dry, because that's what's touching, you know, the hand grips and the pads and all teach it to your hands. Um, so that's another thing that you could do also.

[00:52:18] Immune function depends on staying healthy. Now, if you're, if you're worried about this virus and you've been a slob for the past 10 years and now you'd think, Oh, I'm going to get in shape, you missed the chance to, to protect yourself, get in shape before this stuff happens. Get your sleep straight. Your immune system depends on good sleep.

[00:52:38] If you're not sleeping well, find out why and fix yourself. If you, if you think you have problems with sleep apnea, get a C CPAP machine. You just put the, get the one that goes in your nose and sleep well. Get your sleep strain down. If you have to tie type two diabetes, reverse it. If no one ever told you that you can reverse your type two diabetes, [00:53:00] shame on them.

[00:53:00] Your doctor should say to you, look, you know, if you ate less carbs, if you move more, if you got your sleep straightened out, you probably wouldn't need these drugs and you probably wouldn't be diabetic anymore. Cause that's the God's honest truth. It's not a CA genetic condition. I mean, I'm sorry. It's not a disease.

[00:53:15] It's a condition. You can reverse it. Okay, so get yourself in shape now and fix these problems. Also. If you are worried about leaving your family and alerts, you should have life insurance. Every man and possibly every woman, if you're a breadwinner in the family, should have life insurance. (800) 560-0301 the easiest company to ever do business with.

[00:53:39] Is ti a term provider? Big Lou. We have the commercial running. I got hooked up with them and I picked up $1 million worth of life insurance. They sent somebody out to my house, they did vitals, they took my blood, boom, boom, boom. It was done. Bang. Two weeks later, I had a binder, so God forbid I do get this and God forbid Mark is right that even though I think I'm 30 I'm still 62 and [00:54:00] I die from it, at least the people I leave behind aren't going to be in a lurch.

[00:54:05] This is the stuff you have to do in anticipation of these things happening, not when they're happening. You got to prepare now for the next time this happens. Mark, you want to add anything? Oh, Hey, thanks. I mean, a lot of my actual work is on life insurance also. Thanks for promoting the industry. Yes. Well, so tell me what you've seen, just real quick, like a reader's digest version.

[00:54:28] How long have you been, uh, an actuary for life insurance? Uh, 42 years and over that 42 years. Do you see 43? I'm sorry. Okay. So over that period of time, have you seen trends in how health, uh, overall health in this country has affected morbidity and mortality? Yeah. Um, nothing, um, launch story, but the short answer is, uh, uh, nothing you haven't seen now.

[00:54:58] There is something I went [00:55:00] through in the eighties and nineties that I think relevant, uh, today is very disheartening, discouraging. Um, unfortunately, I, I was on the edge of, of studying the AIDS, uh, outbreak in the 80s, in the 90s. And I remember spending all day, uh, you know, at work looking at all these, uh, uh.

[00:55:24] H H one V positive people or turning into AIDS, um, um, uh, you know, death claims and an often in the prime of their life, um, AZT and just come out and was the first thing that the, uh, even slowed it down. And so I'd go home at night and, and ms I guess before the Facebook and all that, but you're not be on message boards and stuff.

[00:55:48] Well, I that there'd be people coming on these message boards that were apparently HIV positive and were refusing to take AZT. I don't want, guys, you've got to [00:56:00] take this, this is your life, you know, depends on it. Um, but, uh, to, to, um, thick headed to, to do anything about it. And for some reason, I don't hear from any of them, uh, uh, today, but, um.

[00:56:16] There's, there's an analogy, there's an analogy here in the . Some people say, no, no, no, this isn't really a big deal, or it's fake, or it's, it's a hoax to get Trump out of office or something like that. And it's kinda like. Now, folks, now this, this is serious. This is a real deal. We can manage it. We know how to get through this.

[00:56:36] If we do the right things here, uh, this, this will be a walk in the park compared some, some other things this country has gone through. Um, given we take it seriously, there's, we don't need to panic, but we do need to take it. Um. Seriously. No. I'm getting kind of a deja blue thing all over again. Cause remember going through this HIV act, things were where the thing where the words, [00:57:00] people in disbelief and I was sitting right in front of the numbers and just just shaking my head and wondering why these, these guys wouldn't take their medicine.

[00:57:09] And at the time was about the only way they could save their life. It's interesting because at that point in time, I had a friend that lived in Ohio right outside of Cincinnati and he, uh. He actually was in the insurance business and he started a company and what they were doing was the addict settlement policies for people who contracted HIV.

[00:57:32] So what they do is they go to you, you've got a half a million dollar life insurance policy, and they'd give you maybe 25 cents on the dollar that they put you through rigorous medical examinations to make sure you really were sick. And then they would buy those policies like 25 cents on the dollar.

[00:57:47] And they said, well, look, you want to leave money to somebody after you're dead. You want some money now so you can go enjoy your life and do things and so on. And he did insanely well. And since he was the first [00:58:00] guy to ever do it, I'm not going to mention his last name, his name was Harry. He was a brilliant guy and he really believed he was doing good work because he's saying, Carl, these these guys are going to die.

[00:58:08] Most of them don't have children. Uh, they, they may not even be survived by their parents any longer. That money is just going to go to nowhere. It's going to go print to a probate court somewhere. We give them money now when they need it because they know they're only going to be alive for a couple more years.

[00:58:23] And, you know, uh, he was called a parasite. He was called all these names and he was literally put out of business at that time for what he was doing. Cause they said he was preying on, you know, uh, vulnerable people. Now today, there are companies that do that to elderly people. Covenant is one of them.

[00:58:42] They'll buy your life insurance policy for percentage of, of the the cash value, so you could have money today and spend it on what you want, assuming you don't have the money to leave to anybody. He was way ahead of his time at that point, but that's when AZT just came out and he said to me this AZT could change everything.

[00:58:59] We [00:59:00] all were holding a lot of policies. We're expecting these guys to die in. Let's say. Four to seven years and these guys could outlive and cause they had a key part of the deal was he kept making the premium payments when they bought your policy. Part of it was they continued to make your premium payments.

[00:59:15] They just became the beneficiaries. Right? And he says this could backfire on us. He said this AZT could save a lot of lives. And uh, he got out of the business that he got a lot of pressure. He got out of business. Interesting story. Interesting story. So I want to put these two things up and then we can.

[00:59:30] Call it a day. This is a very long post, and we can't read long posts like this, but basically a paracetamal should be used according to the French government as an antiinflammatory instead of some of these other drugs that people using a dentist for. Galfsky also put up a link that I can't click showing some sort of clinical trial using of all things Viagra, I guess, uh, for these types of viruses.

[00:59:54] Hopefully somebody will go in and click it later and see what that's about. Let me see. He said. [01:00:00] Plenty of other drugs. Prescription drugs would be expected to do more general searches. Yes. ACE inhibitors. So apparently this virus enters the lung through the angiotensin converting enzyme receptor, so there is some talk about ACE inhibitors, but I would think an ARB would be a better choice than an angiotensin receptor blocker.

[01:00:24] Uh, could actually be protective against developing, uh, uh, I wouldn't, if you don't have high blood pressure and you don't have a receipt, a reason to use an ARB, you can use a short term without any real negative health effects. Uh, but that's another one that's out there that's being postulated. Yeah.

[01:00:41] There's a lot of, lot of good words I'm telling you. Look at the research on vitamin D. it's amazing on what it does with retroviruses, HIV specifically. A lot of research. On high doses, 200,000 I'll use a day completely stopping the replication of HIV. And if HIV doesn't replicate it, does it become AIDS?

[01:01:01] [01:01:00] And in fact, didn't you say before we go that you predicted when you were doing all that work in the AIDS category, that there were people who would be non-symptomatic but would have the virus? That's right. In the late eighties or the early nineties I was. There. There've been a lot of studies that basically concluded that if you projected the progression rate, um, that everyone that has AIDS or everyone that's HIV, not even everyone who has AIDS, but everyone is HIV positive, was going to die.

[01:01:35] Well, I got to looking at the data and I applied a more sophisticated model to the data than what was generally being used at the time. That fit the data better than the models that were used at the time. And I concluded that, I can't say this for sure, but I think some people, a very small percentage, I think it's like 5%, but there's some small percentage of [01:02:00] people who are HIV positive would actually, uh, never, never progressed to AIDS.

[01:02:05] And 20 or 30 years later, I was proven to be. Well, in fact, there is a population of people in Israel. Who carry the HIV virus, but don't get sick and don't die. Now, I don't know if they can pass it on to other people. Um, or somehow it stays sequestered. I don't know. But that, that was a group that was being studied back then.

[01:02:28] It's like, well, how could they get it and not die? So, and look, magic Johnson, I mean, he had HIV, he never developed AIDS. Well, yeah, but let's just talk about magic for a moment. By the time he got it, they had fairly good medicine. And the other thing that I suspect was strongly in his behavior is he didn't have any other bad health habits.

[01:02:49] Right? There's, there's some of the people that were hit hardest with the HIV and AIDS, um, had other bad health, [01:03:00] health habits and drugs, et cetera, to be Frank. Right. Well, and, and, um. To the best of my knowledge. He wasn't into all that, and I think that was a big factor in what for him was actually a pretty good recovery.

[01:03:14] Plus they caught, they caught him, they caught it early, caught him while he was HIV positive. He eat, he hadn't progressed to the arc or the age or anything like that, uh, either. So he had just better everything in his favor. Michael Milken was on TV the other day on the news, talking about in other countries are actually treating HIV.

[01:03:34] With STEM cells and having great success. I don't know anything about it other than that. I haven't read anything about it. But, uh, he spent the rest of his life after, uh, creating Ponzi schemes on wall street. Uh, apparently, uh, he was touched by God. Now I'm joking. Uh, but he has a, he does a lot of good work in the health area, especially with cancer.

[01:03:53] Listen, Mark, thanks for being here today, brother. Thanks. Thanks for having me. It was a lot of fun. And if you have any questions. Send them [01:04:00] to on This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. obviously, we don't have enough time to cover a lot of things like how does this compare to other viruses and all that sort of stuff, but to take the information and add it to your repertoire of education and we'll see everybody tomorrow with more superhuman radio.

[01:04:15] Thank you for watching and listening today. [01:05:00]